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Final YouGov seat-by-seat poll predicts the likely General Election result in Lincolnshire and Rutland





A last seat-by-seat poll has offered a prediction for the General Election results in and around Lincolnshire — with some tight races expected.

The Conservative Party is defending one of its key election strongholds — having taken every single Lincolnshire seat in 2019.

However, Lincoln is predicted to be won by Labour in an eve-of-election poll by YouGov, with Boston and Skegness, Grantham and Bourne and Sleaford and North Hykeham deemed a ‘tossup’ because they are too close to call.

Are the polls right? Photo: stock
Are the polls right? Photo: stock

The Boston and Skegness seat could be won by Reform UK’s Richard Tice, while Labour is said to be hot on the heels of the Tories in Grantham and Bourne and Sleaford and North Hykeham.

Elsewhere, Conservatives look set to hold on — if YouGov is correct — yet the party’s big majorities could well be slashed from where they were in 2019 on a night the pollsters predict to be a Labour landslide nationally.

Lincolnshire and Rutland MPs before the election was called. Photo: UK Parliament
Lincolnshire and Rutland MPs before the election was called. Photo: UK Parliament

Lincolnshire General Election seat-by-seat prediction

Boston and Skegness

The poll suggest a result of: Con 34.7%, Reform 34.2%, Lab 22.9%, Lib Dem 4.3%, Green 3.2% Other 0.6%

In 2019 the constituency was won by Conservative Matt Warman. The result was Con 76.7%, Lab 15.2%, Lib Dem 4.71%, other 3.42%.

Gainsborough

The poll puts the result as: Con 36.6%, Lab 29.2%, Reform 22%, Lib Dem 7.8%, Green 4.4%

Conservative Sir Edward Leigh won the seat in 2019. The result was Con 66.4%, Labour 21.4%, Lib Dem 10.1%, other 2.1%.

Grantham and Bourne

The newly created seat is described by YouGov as a ‘tossup’, with a result of: Con 34%, Lab 30.9%, Reform 21.8%, Green 5.7%, Lib Dem 5.6%, Other 2.1%. This could be an underestimate for Independent candidates Charmaine Morgan and Ian Selby.

The constituency is currently part of Grantham and Stamford and held by Conservative Gareth Davies. The 2019 result was Con 65.7%, Lab 19.3%, Lib Dem 10.99%, Green 4.04%.

Lincoln

YouGov is still predicting the seat to become ‘safe’ for Labour, with a huge change from 2019 that has been forecast in several polls. The poll has the result as: Lab 47.7%, Con 21.2%, Reform 19.9%, Lib Dem 5.9%, Green 4.9% Other 0.4%

The seat is currently held by Conservative Karl McCartney. The 2019 result was: Con 47.9%, Lab 41%, Lib 4.78%, Green 2.36%, Brexit 2.13%, others 1.8%

Louth and Horncastle

The YouGov predicted result is: Con 40.6%, Lab 26%, Reform 24.9%, Lib Dem 5%, Green 2.8%, Other 0.7%

Conservative Victoria Atkins won the seat in 2019 with the result of Con 72.7%, Lab 17.5%, Lib Dem 7.86%, Others 1.99%.

Rutland and Stamford

The poll suggests the result for this new-look seat would be: Con 43.6%, Lab 19.9%, Lib Dem 16.4%, Reform 15%, Green 4.4%, Other 0.8%

In 2019 the constituency was part of Rutland and Melton and won by Conservative Alicia Kearns. The result was Con 62.6%, Lab 16.4%, Lib Dem 13.67%, Green 4.93%, other 2.36%.

Sleaford and North Hykeham

The poll puts the result at: Con 40.3%, Lab 32.9, Reform 15%, Lib Dem 6.5%, Green 4.4%

The seat won by Conservative Dr Caroline Johnson in 2019. The result was Con 67.1%, Lab 18.2%, Lib Dem 8.05%, other 3.99%, Green 2.62%

South Holland and The Deepings

The poll puts the likely result at: Con 39.4%, Lab 27.7%, Reform 23.6%, Lib Dem 5.6%, Green 3.5%, Other 0.2%. It’s thought that this may be an underestimated or Independent candidate Mark Le Sage.

The seat has been won by Conservative Sir John Hayes at every election since it was created in 1997. The result was Con 75.9%, Lab 13.22%, Lib Dem 6.56%, Green 3.28%, Others 1.02%

Over the border

North West Cambridgeshire

YouGov suggests this could be a tight race, with a result of: Lab 38.2%, Con 29.1%, Reform 19.5%, Lib Dem 7.6%, Green 5.6%

This would be a Labour gain from current Conservative holder Shailesh Vara. The 2019 result was Con 62.5%, Lab 22.2%, Lib Dem 10.66%, Green 4.68%

Corby and East Northamptonshire

This seat looks likely to be another gain for Labour, with a predicted result of: Lab 45.9%, Con 25.8%, Reform 17.9%, Lib Dem 5%, Green 4.5%, Other 0.9%

The constituency is currently known as Corby and is held by Conservative Tom Pursglove. The 2019 result was Con 55.2%, Lab 38.3%, Lib Dem 6.5%.

YouGov’s final call MRP of the 2024 election points to a Labour landslide. The model’s ‘midpoint seat projections’ show Labour on 431, Conservatives on 102, Liberal Democrats on 72, the SNP on 18, Greens on 2, Reform UK on 3, and Plaid Cymru on 3.

The seat ranges for the parties are Labour 391-466, Conservatives 78-129, Liberal Democrats 57-87, the SNP 8-34, Greens 1-4, Reform UK 0-14 and Plaid Cymru 1-4. YouGov has categorised 89 seats as ‘tossups’, meaning there are five points or fewer between first and second place, so small changes in voter behaviour could see notable changes in results.

The results are based on a modelled survey of 47,751 adults, between June 19 and July 2.

What do you think? Are the polls right? Let us know your views in the comments below…



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