New General Election poll predicts results for Lincolnshire and Rutland

A major new poll has forecast the General Election result - and shows a big drop of support for the Conservatives in stronghold seats in our area.

A YouGov poll reported by The Times has set out the likely seat-by-seat results in the next General Election - which is likely to be held at some point in 2024 - and offered a glimpse at the possible results in Lincolnshire and Rutland.

Nationally, the poll puts Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives on course for a big defeat with just 155 seats left (down from 365 in 2019) and only 24% of the vote. This poll uses complicated statistical analysis to show what’s happening in each seat - rather than a broad brush national breakdown - which allows voters to get a glimpse of what the election could mean for this area.

Although much of Lincolnshire is on course to remain loyal to the Conservative Party, the data shows that the Tories are still on track to lose large swathes of their support while keeping hold of the seats. If the poll were to play out the Conservative share of the vote would plummet 36.8% for Sir John Hayes in South Holland and The Deepings - often seen as the safest Tory seat in the county.

There would be drops of 30% in Grantham and Bourne, 30.6% in Boston and Skegness and 22.6% in Rutland and Stamford. However, for the first and last of those three, boundary changes make straight comparisons trickier with new seats created.

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The poll puts the Conservatives on track to lose in Lincoln and in North West Cambridgeshire and Corby and East Northamptonshire - seats over the county border that sit within our readership area. There would also be significant amounts of votes picked up by the Reform party, with a highest predicted share of 24.7% in Boston and Skegness.

Lincolnshire General Election prediction:

Boston and Skegness - Con 36.1%, Lab 27.8%, Reform 24.7%, Lib Dem 6.8%, Green 4.6% (In 2019 the constituency was won by Conservative Matt Warman. The result was Con 76.7%, Lab 15.2%, Lib Dem 4.71%, other 3.42%)

Gainsborough - Con 35.2%, Lab 31.6%, Reform 17.6%, Lib Dem 10.5%, Green 5.1% (Conservative Sir Edward Leigh won the seat in 2019. The result was Con 66.4%, Labour 21.4%, Lib Dem 10.1%, other 2.1%)

Grantham and Bourne - Con 35.7%, Lab 29.5%, Reform 16.6%, Lib Dem 9.7%, Green 8.5% (The constituency is currently part of Grantham and Stamford and held by Conservative Gareth Davies. The 2019 result was Con 65.7%, Lab 19.3%, Lib Dem 10.99%, Green 4.04%)

Lincoln - Lab 51.5%, Con 22.1%, Reform 13.7%, Lib Dem 6.8%, Green 5.9% (This would mean a Labour gain, with the seat currently held by Conservative Karl McCartney. The 2019 result was: Con 47.9%, Lab 41%, Lib 4.78%, Green 2.36%, Brexit 2.13%, others 1.8%)

Louth and Horncastle - Con 38.2%, Lab 28.4%, Reform 20.4%, Lib Dem 8.6%, Green 4.4% (Conservative Victoria Atkins won the seat in 2019 with the result of Con 72.7%, Lab 17.5%, Lib Dem 7.86%, Others 1.99%).

Rutland and Stamford - Con 40%, Lab 27%, Reform 13.6%, Lib Dem 13%, Green 6.3% (In 2019 the constituency was part of Rutland and Melton and won by Conservative Alicia Kearns. The result was Con 62.6%, Lab 16.4%, Lib Dem 13.67%, Green 4.93%, other 2.36%)

Sleaford and North Hykeham - Con 36.8%, Lab 30.9, Reform 17.8%, Lib Dem 7.9%, Green 6.7% (The seat won by Conservative Dr Caroline Johnson in 2019. The result was Con 67.1%, Lab 18.2%, Lib Dem 8.05%, other 3.99%, Green 2.62%)

South Holland and The Deepings - Con 39.1%, Lab 26.4%, Reform 21.2%, Lib Dem 7.4%, Green 5.9% (The seat has been won by Conservative Sir John Hayes at every election since it was created in 1997. The result was Con 75.9%, Lab 13.22%, Lib Dem 6.56%, Green 3.28%, Others 1.02%)

Over the border

North West Cambridgeshire - Lab 35.1%, Con 32.5%, Reform 15.4%, Lib Dem 8.8%, Green 8.1% (This would mark a Labour Gain from Conservative Shailesh Vara. The 2019 result was Con 62.5%, Lab 22.2%, Lib Dem 10.66%, Green 4.68%)

Corby and East Northamptonshire - Lab 47.4%, Con 25.4%, Reform 13.9%, Lib Dem 7.6%, Green 5.7% (The constituency is currently known as Corby and is held by Conservative Tom Pursglove, but this poll would see Labour gain the seat)

What do you think? Do you think the poll will prove to be accurate? Let us know your views in the comments below…