What The Guardian, The Times, The Independent and The Financial Times have to say about the Lincolnshire mayoral elections ahead of voting day on May 1

With just days to go before what is being described as one of the most significant election days in Lincolnshire’s history, national media attention is now more focused on the county than ever.

From The Guardian to The Independent and The Times, the nation is watching closely ahead of what could be the final round of Lincolnshire County Council elections due to Labour’s local government reorganisation plans — as well as the first-ever mayoral election for Greater Lincolnshire this Thursday (May 1).

A recent YouGov poll suggests Reform UK candidate and ex-Conservative MP Andrea Jenkyns holds a strong lead in the mayoral race, with 40% of decided voters backing her. Her Conservative rival, North Lincolnshire Council leader Rob Waltham, is polling at 25%.

Labour's Jason Stockwood is on 15%, while the Green Party, Independent, and Liberal Democrat candidates are each polling below 10%.

National coverage has framed the vote as a potential bellwether for Reform, with some speculating it could permanently shift Lincolnshire’s image as a Conservative stronghold. Here’s a look at what the UK’s major publications are saying about the forthcoming elections.

The Guardian

Referencing an Electoral Calculus poll for The Telegraph, Guardian journalist Ben Quinn reported that Reform could take all county council seats along the Lincolnshire coast, while the Conservatives are likely to retain overall control of the authority.

However, The Guardian also reports that internal Conservative polling shows a tighter race in parts of the county’s south, where the Tories are expected to hold on.

One source told the paper: “Reform has no meaningful ground operation or data, but they are pouring money in.”

They added: “Across Lincolnshire, Reform is polling at 60%. I don’t believe that, but lots of activists and councillors are going into this thinking that this is an extinction-level event.”

During a canvassing session in West Deeping with South Holland and the Deepings MP Sir John Hayes (Con) and mayoral candidate Rob Waltham, the contest was described as a three-way race between the Conservatives, Reform and Labour.

Describing Lincolnshire as one of the "most Eurosceptic parts of Britain" — and already home to one Reform MP in Boston and Skegness — Quinn suggested the party could theoretically make gains in both Labour-held areas such as Grimsby and traditional Conservative heartlands, if its “prime minister in waiting” message takes hold.

The Times

An article by The Times Deputy Editor Mat Rudd followed a road trip across Greater Lincolnshire, during which he approached five people in Scunthorpe — only one of whom was aware that elections were imminent.

The only one who knew, and declined to give a name, reportedly explained in "strong Anglo-Saxon" terms what he thought of “all politicians”.

"Outside the Tavern (£2.30 a pint!), two pensioners blink in the sunshine and smile a welcome. The smiles disappear when I mention the elections. They’ll vote — reluctantly — and they’ll vote for Reform," Rudd wrote.

“First extrapolation: turnout in this week’s election on Thursday might be low, but it will also be angry.”

Later, on the outskirts of Lincoln, 54-year-old James offered a more detailed assessment.

“It’s a thankless task being a politician because the whole system is broken,” he told the paper. “Everything is short-term and driven by social media. There’s no plan for the long term, which we need because the councils are a disaster, the police are a disaster, and what about the NHS?

“Starmer did make some difficult decisions when he got in, but then he’s stuck to deeply unpopular policies like winter fuel. He’s made it inevitable that Farage will be prime minister in 2028.”

Rudd wrote that it was difficult to get a comprehensive opinion from anyone under 50. A 20-something waitress in Lincoln told him simply, “I don’t vote.”

In Skegness, he asked a "young man in a ‘f*** off’ bucket hat" who he was voting for. "He looks at me as if I’ve asked what E equals and I call it a day," Rudd concluded.

“Extrapolating, it will be a Reform landslide in Lincolnshire on a record low turnout — or I’ll eat that bucket hat.”

The Independent

The Independent recently reported that Reform UK mayoral candidate Andrea Jenkyns faced the possibility of disqualification from the race over claims that she does not live in the area.

The former Tory MP appeared before a hearing at North Kesteven District Council on Friday (April 25) after a complaint was lodged by the agent of one of her rivals. It alleged she was not eligible to stand because she lives in Leeds — the location of her former parliamentary constituency.

Jenkyns was ultimately cleared to stand in the election, and has since branded herself on X, formerly known as Twitter, as a “smear campaign survivor”.

However, in a more recent analysis of the forthcoming elections — not only in Greater Lincolnshire, but also Hull and East Yorkshire, Doncaster, and the West of England to name but a few — associate editor Sean O'Grady questioned Reform's ability to run services and balance the books of hard-pressed councils.

He wrote: “Probably the worst thing that could happen to Nigel Farage this week would be that Reform UK wins all the six regional mayoralties and 37 local and county councils that are up for grabs in Thursday’s elections.

“It would force his policy-free populist party of protest into a party of power — and would show his bunch of ‘fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists,’ as someone once called them, to be as clueless as they actually are.

“They don’t have a clue about how to help the people who vote for them — often as not as a fairly desperate protest — and they need to be exposed as the charlatans they really are.

“That won’t happen — but Reform will do well, if the polls are to be believed.”

The Financial Times

Meanwhile, George Parker of The Financial Times predicted that Thursday’s elections could signal the beginning of a new era of multi-party politics, threatening the long-standing Labour and Conservative duopoly.

“All eyes will be on Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, leading in the national polls and seeking to start building a local base from ground zero upon which to mount a serious assault on Westminster at the next general election, expected in 2029,” he wrote.

“But while the right-wing populist party poses a serious threat — particularly to the Tories, the main party of the right — the local elections are also likely to result in big gains for the centrist Liberal Democrats across the prosperous south, and the Greens, who pose a growing threat to Labour on the left.”

He also noted that the Conservatives are defending far more seats than any other party across the 23 councils holding elections, while Reform is fielding the most candidates.

Referencing recent opinion polls, Parker highlighted that Reform is the favourite to win in both the Greater Lincolnshire and Hull and East Yorkshire mayoral races.