South Holland and the Deepings MP Sir John Hayes on the future for our economy after the pandemic

The tragedy of those lost over the last few weeks is hard to bear. All of our lives have changed in a way we could not have anticipated and barely imagined.

The long-term results of the pandemic, which has killed over 20,000 Britons and more than 200,000 worldwide, are bound to be painful.

The Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast has warned that in the event of a three-month lockdown, followed by a further three months of partial restrictions, our economy could shrink by 35%. Consequent government borrowing would result in the largest deficit since the Second World War.

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Our response should not be about political parties, nor even about politics at all. We must all pull together to do what’s necessary to save lives and livelihoods.

Public health and the public good are not competing alternatives. The NHS will suffer from catastrophic economic collapse. Each day, shutdown is costing £2.4 billion – the equivalent of six huge new state-of-the-art hospitals and some have already predicted that “avoidable deaths” resulting from lockdown may outnumber those tragically killed by Covid-19.

So, to maintain all we need to keep our country going, the Government will implement a strategy for the relaxation of restrictions as soon as it can be done safely. Maintaining the present arrangement unaltered until a vaccine is released – which could be up to a year away – would not do. In my view, once it’s certain that the worst is over and NHS capacity increased – with all the necessary precautions in place - local, independent businesses could be reopened – garden centres would be a good start.

Even if things were to return to normal tomorrow, the economy will take time to recover from the shock of an unprecedented interruption and continuing uncertainty. So careful thought is needed about what kind of future economic settlement we want.

Two economic priorities must prevail.

Firstly, the gap between rich and poor should be reduced. As the great Conservative leader Benjamin Disraeli articulated – more vividly than any Prime Minister before or since - the peace and prosperity of the United Kingdom depends on the unity of “one nation” bound by a sense of shared endeavour and common life.

To achieve this, those big businesses that have prospered should contribute most to economic renewal. Surely, huge businesses like the multi-billion-pound supermarkets and (tax-avoiding) online corporates which have profited in good times should share their wealth when tough times come. A tax on all online businesses would raise a huge amount to spend on those in greatest need.

With national discipline and shared sacrifice, the British economy had begun to show signs of strength following the 2008 financial crash, but the response to the coming recession cannot be as it was then. Further austerity, with cuts to public services, is not appropriate. Rather, fair, targeted taxes on those corporations earning most must be the cornerstone of our efforts to rebalance the books, with faceless giants like Amazon and Google being prime candidates. Meanwhile, why not permanently abolish council tax altogether for smaller, independent businesses, making up the difference by taxing the supermarkets which have made a fortune during this crisis.

Second, it is now strikingly clear that cosmopolitan economics has failed. Only by replacing a reliance on foreign powers with products made in Britain can security and stability be restored, so ensuring we are resilient in challenging times. No longer can all of Britain’s economic eggs be placed in a basket filled by the ephemera of the internet, the fragility of services or the migration of goods and labour from overseas.

It is good to have a Prime Minister who speaks frankly, rather than spinning yarns or sugar-coating hard realities. Some businesses which have closed may not reopen, our national debt will grow for years and more Britons will struggle to find a job. Yet our country has never been short of drive. Together, we can craft a new economic settlement where wellbeing and community are valued more highly than ceaseless growth and faceless corporatism. We will succeed again.