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Major seat-by-seat General Election poll by YouGov predicts the results in Lincolnshire and Rutland

A new poll has predicted the likely election outcome for all of the seats in and around Lincolnshire — with polling day now less than a month away.

The poll describes the new seat of Grantham and Bourne as a ‘tossup’ — with Tories only just set to cling on — and suggests Lincoln could become a safe Labour seat, despite currently being held by Conservative Karl McCartney.

In Boston and Skegness, Reform’s ex-leader Richard Tice has attracted national interest by announcing he will stand in the constituency — yet YouGov puts him in third, behind both Labour and the Tories, with Matt Warman predicted to hold his seat, albeit with a much lower vote share.

Lincolnshire and Rutland MPs. Photo: UK Parliament
Lincolnshire and Rutland MPs. Photo: UK Parliament

Lincolnshire and the surrounding area is typically a Conservative Party stronghold. While the party is likely to hold on to many of its seats here after the July 4 ballot — the pollsters reckon MPs will see their majorities slashed. In South Holland and the Deepings, for example, Sir John Hayes is predicted to see a majority of 62.7% slashed to 12.6% and Sleaford and North Hykeham’s Dr Caroline Johnson is on course to see her majority go own from 48.9% to just 7.4%.

Alicia Kearns, however, is on course for a 20% majority in the new Rutland and Stamford seat.

Nationally, the poll suggests a big win for Labour, with the party predicted to pick up 420 seats. It puts the Tories on 140 and Liberal Democrats in third on 48.

Who will you vote for in 2024? Photo: stock
Who will you vote for in 2024? Photo: stock

Lincolnshire General Election seat-by-seat prediction

Boston and Skegness

The poll puts the result as a likely Conservative victory, with a result of: Con 42.3%, Lab 28.3%, Reform 20.3%, Lib Dem 4.7%, Green 3.2%

In 2019 the constituency was won by Conservative Matt Warman. The result was Con 76.7%, Lab 15.2%, Lib Dem 4.71%, other 3.42%.


If the poll is right, the seat would be held by the Conservatives, albeit with a much closer race. The poll puts the result as: Con 40.9%, Lab 32.9%, Reform 14.2%, Lib Dem 7.4%, Green 3.7%

Conservative Sir Edward Leigh won the seat in 2019. The result was Con 66.4%, Labour 21.4%, Lib Dem 10.1%, other 2.1%.

Grantham and Bourne

The newly created seat is described by YouGov as a ‘tossup’, with a result of: Con 38.6%, Lab 35.1%, Reform 13.8%, Lib Dem 6.5%, Green 5.4%.

The constituency is currently part of Grantham and Stamford and held by Conservative Gareth Davies. The 2019 result was Con 65.7%, Lab 19.3%, Lib Dem 10.99%, Green 4.04%.


YouGov is predicting the seat to become ‘safe’ for Labour, with a huge change from 2019. The poll has the result as: Lab 54.6%, Con 24.1%, Reform 10.2%, Lib Dem 5.4%, Green 5%

The seat is currently held by Conservative Karl McCartney. The 2019 result was: Con 47.9%, Lab 41%, Lib 4.78%, Green 2.36%, Brexit 2.13%, others 1.8%

Louth and Horncastle

The YouGov predicted result is: Con 44.3%, Lab 29.5%, Reform 16.8%, Lib Dem 5.6%, Green 3.1%

Conservative Victoria Atkins won the seat in 2019 with the result of Con 72.7%, Lab 17.5%, Lib Dem 7.86%, Others 1.99%.

Rutland and Stamford

The poll suggests the result for this new-look seat would be: Con 44.4%, Lab 24.4%, Reform 14.4%, Lib Dem 10.3%, Green 5.7%

In 2019 the constituency was part of Rutland and Melton and won by Conservative Alicia Kearns. The result was Con 62.6%, Lab 16.4%, Lib Dem 13.67%, Green 4.93%, other 2.36%.

Sleaford and North Hykeham

The seat looks likely to stay Tory blue, with a result of: Con 40.3%, Lab 32.9, Reform 15%, Lib Dem 6.5%, Green 4.4%

The seat won by Conservative Dr Caroline Johnson in 2019. The result was Con 67.1%, Lab 18.2%, Lib Dem 8.05%, other 3.99%, Green 2.62%

South Holland and The Deepings

This safe Tory seat looks set to stay with the Conservatives, albeit with a vastly reduced majority. The poll puts the likely result at: Con 42.8%, Lab 30.2%, Reform 17.4%, Lib Dem 4.9%, Green 3.9%. It doesn’t take account of the impact of independent candidate Mark Le Sage.

The seat has been won by Conservative Sir John Hayes at every election since it was created in 1997. The result was Con 75.9%, Lab 13.22%, Lib Dem 6.56%, Green 3.28%, Others 1.02%

The race is on as candidates vie for your votes in the 2024 General Election.
The race is on as candidates vie for your votes in the 2024 General Election.

Over the border

North West Cambridgeshire

YouGov suggests this could be a tight race, with a result of: Lab 37.3%, Con 32.9%, Reform 12.5%, Lib Dem 9.6%, Green 6.9%

This would be a tight a Labour gain from current Conservative holder Shailesh Vara. The 2019 result was Con 62.5%, Lab 22.2%, Lib Dem 10.66%, Green 4.68%

Corby and East Northamptonshire

This seat looks likely to be another potential capture by Labour, with a predicted result of: Lab 47.4%, Con 25.4%, Reform 13.9%, Lib Dem 7.6%, Green 5.7%

The constituency is currently known as Corby and is held by Conservative Tom Pursglove. The 2019 result was Con 55.2%, Lab 38.3%, Lib Dem 6.5%.

The poll is based on modelled responses from 53,334 adults in England and Wales, and 5,541 in Scotland — with more details on how it was calculated here.

What do you think? Are the polls right? Let us know your views in the comments below…

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